FXUS63 KAPX 031922

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
322 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...Period of showers very late tonight into Saturday...

High impact weather potential: minimal.

Another bright and sunny afternoon in progress, with warm temps
and low RH values. An initial area of thicker cloud cover looms
just sw of MBL, though everything is moving slowly in this very
amplified 500mb pattern. However, there is enough energy moving
eastward across the central US to displace and minor out the sharp
500mb shortwave ridge presently overhead. That will get things
moving again, allowing an upstream cold front (from IWD to central
WI) to push in early Saturday.

The initial round of showers to our west earlier today was pre-
frontal. However, that eroded with time, and has been replaced by
showers that are largely post-frontal. Models continue to have
some struggles with how quickly the shortwave ridge gets shoved
over, and how quickly precip enters (and exits) northern MI. There
is only a narrow zone of warm/moist advection between the surface
ridge and incoming cold front, though with an initial slow
evolution of the pattern, that warm/moist advection gets a decent
amount of time to act. Our in-situ airmass is of course very dry,
with mainly clear skies and low surface RHs. It will take time to
turn that around. But for late tonight into Saturday, 500mb
heights do see some abrupt falls.

Some cloud cover increase will occur this evening in nw lower and
eastern upper MI. But the bigger push of cloud cover is overnight.
Showers should arrive in nw lower MI and western parts of
Chip/Mack Cos after 4-5am. That band of showers will then make
steady (and accelerating) eastward progress into and across all of
northern MI during the daylight hours Saturday, exiting by dusk.
P-type will be almost all liquid; perhaps there will be a window
for some snow to mix in along the trailing edge in eastern upper

Min temps tonight warmer than last night, ranging thru the 30s.
Highs temps Saturday will be cooler though, in the lower 40s
(eastern upper/nw lower MI) to around 50f (near Saginaw Bay).


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...Near normal temperatures...

High Impact Weather...None is expected.

Forecast Concerns...Timing of ending precipitation Saturday evening.

Short term model guidance has definitely trended faster with the
trough and associated rain showers moving through Saturday.
Therefore, have entirely removed pops from Saturday night. Surface
high pressure quickly builds in Saturday night and holds across the
region through Sunday evening yielding clearing skies. Mixed signals
after that with a possible short wave moving through a nearly zonal
flow aloft overnight Sunday into Monday. At this point will just
have slight chance pops for rain showers on Monday. Temperatures are
expected to average out close to normal early April levels. This
would be highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s and lows in the mid 20s
to lower 30s.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...Turning colder later in the week...

High Impact Weather...Minimal.

Forecast Concerns...How chilly it will turn later next week and
whether or not we`ll see a return of the white stuff.

Zonal flow to continue through mid week leading to somewhat mild
temperatures and small rain shower chances. Extended models are then
trending colder after that. So with colder air likely in place and
short waves dropping down through the flow, snow or mixed rain and
snow shower chances enter into the picture as early as Wednesday
night and continue into at least Thursday. Temperatures near to
slightly above average Monday and Tuesday look to drop to at least a
few degrees below average for the remainder of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

VFR thru most of tonight. MVFR and then IFR arrives Sat morning.

Skinny ridge of high pressure remains overhead, providing quiet wx
and VFR. This high will slowly move off to the east, allowing a
front now in western WI to make inroads into northern MI. Clouds
will be on the increase tonight, thickening and lowering. MVFR
cigs could arrive at MBL toward first light Saturday. These will
expand across the rest of the TAF sites during the morning, as
will rain showers. Eventually, IFR conditions will work into the
western TAf sites as we approach midday.

Lake breezes this afternoon. Light winds tonight. Nw winds arrive
Sat morning.


Issued at 322 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Slow-moving high pressure will finally get kicked eastward by
Saturday, allowing a cold front to move into the region. This will
spawn some showers, and a little bit more in the way of
wind/waves. Light se winds tonight, will turn into more brisk nw
to n winds behind the front Sat. Marginal small craft advisory
conditions are possible on Saturday, mainly in Lake MI south of
Sleeping Bear, as well as on Whitefish Bay. For now am not
planning on issuing any advisories just yet.





NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion