591
FXUS63 KAPX 131810
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
210 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool temperatures tonight with a few colder pockets dipping into
the 30s

- Windy and wet Monday night into Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Fast moving upper flow across the northern tier of the CONUS with
Pacific energy sliding over a developing ridge and into the
Great Lakes. Synoptically, this upcoming pattern has heavy rain
potential signals for parts of the Great Lakes. This includes
impressive northward moisture transport, favorable upper level
jet energy north of a strengthening upper ridge and a stalled
out frontal boundary over the northern Ohio Valley/southern
Lakes. A tightening pressure gradient early in the week will
create windy conditions as well.

Surface high pressure slides across the area tonight, setting the
area up for very cool temperatures.  Widespread 40s over interior
areas with typical colder locations in the mid to upper 30s (a touch
of patchy frost?).  A few wildcards in the forecast which could
impact temperatures include some lingering lake cloud potential into
the evening and the possibility that we don`t fully decouple the
winds until the surface high drifts more directly overhead.

We are still looking at widespread rain potential Monday night
into early Tuesday with strengthening moist, southwest flow in
advance of a cold front. Models have backed off a little on the
broader heavy rain signals for northern Michigan, placing the
best f-gen response and moisture transport primarily to our west
Monday night and to our south on Tuesday. Prob QPF numbers
still show some potential for 1"+ rainfall amounts, although
those numbers have trended downward in recent runs. The pattern
is fairly progressive, as the shortwave energy shears out over
Ontario and the front slides across the area by later Tuesday.
Winds will certainly ramp up Monday night into early Tuesday
with a 40+ knot low level jet in the weakening phase as it
pushes toward our area. Not the most favorable pattern to fully
mix these winds to the surface given continued warm air
advection. Despite that, think some areas closer to Lake
Michigan could see 40+ mph gusts, lower inland.

Some question marks for the middle/end of the week as additional
shortwave energy rides along a quasi-stationary boundary to our
south.  Best rain potential will be south, closer to the boundary
but at least some shower chances for the second half of the week
over northern Michigan.  A stronger shortwave may move toward the
Great Lakes next weekend, bringing better chances of widespread
rain. Temperatures generally fairly close to normal for mid
September, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the
40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Prevailing VFR conditions across northern Michigan this
afternoon...combination of lake/diurnal Sc/Cu and a mid level
overcast across northern Lower...with broken convective clouds
and showers across Lake Superior and central/eastern Upper
Michigan. Showers may sag into far northern/northeast Lower
later this afternoon...with occasional MVFR visibilities at
KCIU/KPLN/KAPN. High pressure builds into Michigan
overnight...may still be some lake induced Sc around but
anticipating VFR conditions through Monday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016-
     018-020-025-031-099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345-346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ347>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...JPB

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion