000
FXUS63 KAPX 210341
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1141 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Just a few passing mid and upper level clouds across the area this
evening. Only concern tonight is the potential for fog...a trend
already noted with mist developing at a few locations. Combination
of light wind, falling temperatures, and lingering low level
moisture (dewpoints in the lower and middle 60s) should allow at
least some patchy fog to develop later tonight, especially in
those low-lying sheltered locations. Not expecting a widespread
dense fog event, but localized visibilities under a quarter of a
mile are possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...Mainly quiet through tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. Some fog possible
tonight.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon composite analysis reveals a
non-descript pattern with weakening surface high pressure across
the Great Lakes but a pesky weak short-wave trough/circulation
slowly working across northern Lake Huron. Remnants of a narrow
moisture channel remain stretched up through Lower Michigan. Weak
background forcing with the wave acting on that moisture continues
to produce stubborn very light showers/sprinkles through the tip
of the mitt region although it appears like that is finally about
done.

Otherwise, mid cloud cover has been gradually thinning across the
region. But with heating and very modest instability, "heating of
the day" CU has been gradually expanding across interior portions
of eastern Upper and northern Lower Michigan. CU is most robust
and congested across north-central Lower Michigan although no
signs of any precip on KAPX radar...so far.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Shower chances through the rest of the
afternoon. Some fog tonight.

Weak short-wave circulation and associated sprinkles should finally
exit our area in the next few hours. And with the ever shortening
daytime hours, window for any pop-up showers/storms will be closing
fairly soon as well. But given some modest instability and inland
low level convergence, I still think there is yet an opportunity
for a few showers to pop late this afternoon/early evening.

Weak flow, a moist boundary layer and thinning cloud cover will
likely lead to some fog again tonight. But I don`t think it will
become a big deal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

High impact weather potential: Thunderstorms possible Saturday night
through Monday morning. Heavy rain potential Sunday through Monday
morning.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Return moisture from the Gulf of Mexico (possibly enhanced by the
remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda) will impact northern Michigan
throughout the forecast period. Models have 1.50-2.00" PWATs progged
for our area Saturday night through Friday morning ahead of a weak,
very slow moving cold front associated with a low pressure system
near Hudson Bay approaching from the west. This will provide
southerly to southwesterly winds through Sunday and then veer to
more westerly and northwesterly Monday after frontal passage. There
is still a very large spread from ensemble members for QPF
amounts...ranging from a tenth of an inch to 1.30"...for a mean of
about a half an inch. The mean from has decreased the past couple
runs, with only about 0.40" of rainfall by Sunday morning and
another tenth falling throughout the day Sunday. So still not very
confident with QPF amounts and will have to continue monitoring each
model run for updates. WPC does have the forecast area in a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall for Day 3. With unfavorable synoptic
conditions for strong to severe thunderstorms...any thunderstorms
that do develop should not have any severe threat...with mostly
heavy rain and lightning being the main threats. High temperatures
will continue to be above normal Saturday...reaching into the upper
70s to low 80s, but will be back to normal Sunday and Monday, only
reaching into the upper 60s Sunday under cloud cover and rain and
into the low to mid 60s Monday behind the aforementioned cold front.
South to southwesterly winds will be gusty Saturday afternoon
through Sunday ahead of said cold front...gusting to 20-30 mph, with
the strongest gusts near the Lake Michigan shoreline.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Some residual low level moisture may allow isolated to scattered
showers to linger into Monday night. Overall Tuesday weak shortwave
ridging moves overhead with surface high pressure continuing to dry
things out. Another low treks through Ontario Wednesday into
Thursday, dragging another front across us for renewed shower
chances. Temperatures return to near normal or slightly above normal
for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1138 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Patchy mist and fog, potentially producing IFR conditions at
times, are expected early this morning. Otherwise, high clouds
will begin to lower heading through today, with MVFR conditions
developing from the southwest during the afternoon and early
evening. Showers will accompany this lower cloud deck, with even
the potential for a few embedded thunderstorms. Light winds will
become gusty out of the southwest during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Light winds/waves anticipated tonight through Saturday morning.
But stronger SW flow develops during the day Saturday and persists
through Sunday. Small craft advisories are a good bet for many
nearshore areas through much of the weekend.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...BA

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion