FXUS63 KAPX 221341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
941 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Issued at 941 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Morning composite analysis reveals a buckling upper level trough
taking shape across the northern Great Lakes, courtesy of a
short-wave feature rolling through northern Michigan this morning
on the tail end of an upper level jet streak that extends across
New England. Short-wave and upper jet forced band of thicker mid
and high cloud cover has been working through the region over the
last several hours. There are and have been elevated radar returns
running through the region over the last several hours. Mostly of
the virga variety, although Manistee did report measurable
rainfall overnight through 12Z.

Going forward, per satellite and radar trends, band of thicker
cloud cover (and associated radar returns) will exit the region
over the next few hours. This will leave mainly sunny skies for
the balance of the day...save for any heating of the day clouds
that develop. A little cooler overall compared to Sunday
particularly in the S/SE part of the forecast area.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 331 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...Mainly clear and mild today and tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Strong high pressure continues to build
into the Northern Plains...with pronounced ridging building into the
Western Great Lakes region. Latest satellite loop shows quite a bit
of mid/high cloudiness hanging over Michigan...but surface obs are
still showing SKC below 12 kft. Latest near term models still show
this mid/high cloud deck will steadily push eastward early this
morning...eventually leading to increasing sunshine as we head into
midday. Skies will then remain mostly clear for the rest of the day
and thru tonight thanks to building subsidence and dry air thru the

Expect another beautiful late July day across the Northwoods with
mild temps and low humidities. Afternoon highs will warm into the
70s...with overnight lows cooling back into the 50s. Enjoy!


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...Shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Low.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Pops and thunder chances Tuesday.

Northwest flow aloft to start the period Tuesday. A likely short
wave or two moving through the flow will result in scattered rain
shower chances. There is also the possibility of a thunderstorm due
to a bit of daytime driven instability (few hundred J/Kg of mixed
layer cape). Severe storms are not expected with little in the way
of wind aloft. Steadily rising heights Tuesday night into Wednesday
will keep pops out of the forecast for now (assuming another short
wave does not end up moving through the flow). Humidity levels will
remain low with temperatures Tuesday about 5 degrees below average
before moderating to near average Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...Turning more humid with shower and storm chances...

High Impact Weather Potential...Low so far.

Ridging aloft begins to build in Thursday with ridging likely
holding on through much of Friday. The pattern then looks like it
will morph into a nearly zonal aloft but with slight long wave
troughing for the remainder of the period. This setup with lead to
warmer and moderately humid conditions as well as chances for
showers and maybe thunderstorms starting late Friday on through the
remainder of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

High pressure will continue to build into the Western Great Lakes
region today and tonight...with solid VFR conditions expected as a
result. Northerly winds will strengthen to 10 to 20 kts with some
higher gusts expected today. Wind speeds will diminish to below 10
kts tonight.


Issued at 331 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Winds and waves will reach SCA criteria this afternoon and evening
along the St. Marys River and within our Lake Huron nearshore areas
as daytime mixing brings some higher winds aloft to the surface. Dry
wx is expected today and tonight...with small chances of a shower or
thunderstorm develop Tuesday as a weak wave rides thru Northern


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for LHZ346>348.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for LSZ322.



NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion