816
FXUS63 KAPX 062352
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
652 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light lake effect snow tonight, with nuisance accums.

- Accumulating wet, dense snow possible for EUP/Tip of the Mitt
  Saturday.

- Above normal temperatures linger through early next week

- Chances for rain and a wintry mix early Monday

- Snow chances return mid week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024

Pattern Synopsis: Split flow pattern persists across the lower 48.
In the southern stream a cutoff low is over the southwest states and
northern Mexico, while numerous disturbance are embedded within a
faster northwest flow northern stream diving southeast across the
Great Lakes from western Canada. The next feature of interest for
our area is a clipper type wave currently topping the ridge over
northern British Columbia and Alberta. This wave is forecast to pass
north of the forecast area on Saturday, preceded slightly by an
associated surface low.

Forecast Details: Light snow associated with a weak disturbance
currently over the area will diminish over the next couple of hours.
However, enough over-lake instability persists in the northwest flow
behind this disturbance to produce light Lake Effect Snow showers
over favored portions of northwest Lower and eastern Upper Michigan.
This LES will not be too impressive as inversion heights fall below
4k ft and the sub-inversion layer warms through the overnight hours
ahead of the next clipper wave.

WAA/isentropic ascent increases late tonight into Saturday afternoon
as a clipper system dives southeast toward the western Great Lakes.
A period of accumulating snowfall is expected with this system,
mainly across eastern Upper and the Tip of the Mitt, Saturday
morning into the first half of the afternoon. Snowfall totals in
excess of 3" are anticipated across eastern Upper and the Tip of the
Mitt as the steadier snows move through Saturday. Enough low-level
warming occurs by afternoon that some of the precipitation across
northern Lower may mix with or change to rain before tapering off.

The low-level warm advection through most of the period will boost
temperatures warmer than the past 24 hours. Expect overnight lows
around 20, with daytime highs Saturday a bit above freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024

Larger scale pattern aloft starting Saturday night, with broad upper
level ridging stretching from the central rockies to the great lakes
region as a system continue to exit the CWA. Temperatures will start
to fall to near freezing Sunday night into Monday morning as
precipitation exits eastward. Some mixed precipitation will linger,
however the moisture isn`t present to lead to much additional
accumulations overnight. Light winds will shift around due to a weak
boundary Sunday, however temperatures will remain mild Sunday.

Multiple surface lows will be present over the northern Plains
Sunday into Monday, and will be carried east by stronger flow aloft
over the upper ridge. Low level forcing paired with upper level
deformation will return chances for precipitation early Monday
morning. Warm sector air will spread out over the area as surface
temperatures remain near or slightly below freezing. Model soundings
hint at pixed precipitation chances Monday morning, with possible
freezing rain being a larger part of that mix. Confidence is medium
with mixed precipitation chances, as temperatuers are right around
freezing near the surface. Higher confidence exists for the warm air
to be present aloft, which means the mixed precip will be either
rain, ice pellets, or freezing rain. Snow chances are very low at
this time for Monday - as saturation in the DGZ isn`t present on
most model soundings. With the moisture being more shallow, that
will also likely lead to less accumulations. However, if surface
temperatuers do take a while to warm up and mix with the air aloft
Monday morning could be a slick commute for most of northern lower.
High temperatures for Monday afternoon will likely reach above
freezing (into the high 30s and low 40s), which will alleviate
hazardous driving conditions.

An upper trough will quickly rotate over northern MI as the ridge
progresses east. This will switch winds around to the northwest
again and usher in colder air Tuesday into Wednesday. Lake effect
snow chances return mid week and will linger through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024

BKN-OVC 020-040 thru much of the night. Precip develops and
moves in from the west by and after 12Z, spreading SN across
and north of the Tip of the Mitt. Farther south, SHSN possible,
reducing VIS and CIGs, but only briefly (KTVC, KMBL). IFR CIGs
and VIS within SN, especially across KPLN and KCIU from 15-21Z,
then tapering thereafter Saturday evening and overnight. Winds
south to southwest, 10G20KT at times through the day.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PBB
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...PBB

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion