473
FXUS63 KAPX 200431
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1231 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Localized flooding continues across area rivers, lakes.

- Dry and mild through mid-week, resulting in slow improvement to
  ongoing localized flooding.

- Active weather returns later Thursday into Friday with rain and
  a chance for thunder.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

In wake of a deep trough moving east across New England, a tranquil,
dry, and seasonably cool day is expected today as sfc high pressure
builds overhead. Quick moving trough across Quebec tonight will keep
any precipitation threat to the north of the region. Little
shortwave will combine with some instability to the south of
northern MI to produce some showers/storms, meanwhile, temperatures
recover quite quickly on Tuesday as southwesterly winds usher in 50s
and 60s. Expect another mild and dry day on Wednesday as ridging
builds to our west across the Upper Midwest and Plains states.

Warmest day of the week will likely be Thursday, as ridging over the
Plains moves eastward over the Great Lakes in response to
magnificent energy and subsequent low pressure system across the
central portions of the Nation. Expect temperatures to soar into the
60s and 70s across many inland locales as a warm front extending
from the low pressure system pushes northward (presumably to ~the
Bridge). Additionally, southerly to southwest flow will overspread
northern MI, with a band of above normal PWs and dewpoints expected
on Friday, and thus, showers and thunderstorms possible. Several
runs of deterministic guidance support at least a threat for
moderate to locally heavy rainfall, with NBM prob guidance low to
medium-ish for >0.50" of rain.

Looks like northern MI might be in limbo next weekend as robust
troughing swings to our west, and east, with ridging in-between. I
suppose all it takes is a little perturbation in the flow to keep us
unsettled. Temps appear to be closer to seasonable during this
time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1229 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Despite water levels and flows continuing to decrease, the saturated
soils across northern MI keep the flooding threat across localized
low lying areas that have recently experienced river or lake
flooding. Portions of Indian River and the Little Sturgeon River in
Indian River continue to exhibit areal flooding via NWS
Meteorologists. Similarly, National Water Model Flood Inundation
Mapping services suggest inundated houses along the Black River and
Black Lake, and likely across Wolverine as well (again, some of this
is the fact that the water is having a poor time draining from these
locations). Nevertheless, conditions should continue to improve for
most locations across the board with a several day stretch of dry
weather this week. HEFS guidance, along with current, extrapolated
hydrographs, show all major river systems with a downward trend
through this week, with perhaps only portions of the Manistee River
lingering with minor flooding. Next shot at rain will be Friday,
with the potential for moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Worth
keeping an eye on, especially with the sensitive areas, although one
would assume some drying of the soils will take place given the
warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR. Chilly but increasingly dry air is over northern MI. Lake
effect clouds and SHSN will diminish heading into tonight.
VFR conditions thru the TAF period, though mid/high clouds will
increase into Monday evening.

Winds lighten into tonight. Southerly breezes later Monday.

&&


.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...JZ
HYDROLOGY...JLD

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion