151
FXUS63 KAPX 250246
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1046 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild through Sunday, turning cooler Monday - Tuesday.

- Occasional rain chances return later tonight - Sunday, and at
times over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Amplified pattern continues across NOAM
with several upper waves noted upstream -- in particular one across
Saskatchewan/Manitoba, one over the desert southwest, and a third
off the coast of British Columbia/Pac NW. Upper ridging currently
overhead locally will break down with time late in the weekend into
the start of next week as that northernmost wave treks across
northern Ontario/Hudson Bay into northern Quebec. Second wave over
the southwest will make progress into the north-central CONUS
Tuesday. The third wave not arriving until late week, likely being
absorbed into more broad troughing, eventually expected to sag
across the nation`s midsection and provide our best chance at rain
locally.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather through at
least late tonight as upper ridging dominates aloft and we remain
under the influence of surface high pressure centered over the
Northeast. This upper pattern begins to break down late tonight into
Sunday as vertically stacked low pressure treks by well to our
north. This will drag an elongated cold front near northern MI late
tonight/Sunday morning and eventually across the area Sunday night.
Forcing/moisture with this feature locally are lacking, to say the
least, but low chances for showers do enter the forecast across
parts of the CWA as early as Sunday morning with those chances
lingering in spots through Sunday evening. High temperatures Sunday
largely in the 60s area-wide, with the low 70s possible in
downsloping areas of northeast lower. Post-frontal cooler
temperatures progged for Monday and Tuesday with highs back in the
upper 40s far north and through the 50s over northern lower --
certainly closer to late October normals.

Shower chances Tuesday looking likely to stay primarily off to our
west with that secondary wave driving into the northern plains. Next
shower threat locally looking to hold off until Wednesday night into
Thursday. Doesn`t look like a complete washout, but certainly
features higher precip chances than we`ve seen in the last 7-10+
days.

Looking toward Halloween weekend, previously progged cool down now
looking pretty transient overall. Low-level thermal trough sags in
briefly Thursday night - Friday before quickly retreating back to
the north. Above normal temperatures anticipated for Halloween day,
with latest trends supporting low-mid 60s over northern lower and a
touch cooler north of the bridge. Rain chances may become more
frequent next weekend as well, but lots of spatial/temporal
uncertainty at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Largely VFR. Exception will be CIU, which will see clouds
increase most tonight, and will likely see a dip firmly into
MVFR, perhaps touching IFR at times late Sunday morning through
the afternoon. In addition, there is potential for some showers
near CIU. Elsewhere, CIGs to hold firmly in VFR... perhaps
nearing MVFR at CIU Sunday afternoon. High clouds for most
through the day will get a touch lower into the evening. Any
SHRA activity likely holds away from TAF sites, and even if it
does impact PLN or APN late in the afternoon, anticipating it to
be high based with limited VSBY reductions. SW winds building
tonight will turn NW Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ341.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ342.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...HAD

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion