230
FXUS63 KAPX 142351
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
651 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering nuisance light lake effect precip possible at times this
  weekend.

- More sun returns Monday with a notable warming trend for much
  of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this afternoon, troughing remains
anchored over the Northeast with ridging prevalent upstream across
the Plains. Heights aloft slowly in the process of rising locally,
with that trend continuing into early this week as ridging builds
into the Great Lakes. At the surface, higher pressure starting to
filter in from the west becomes centered overhead Sunday afternoon
before sagging into the Ohio Valley early-mid week. Primary focus
revolves around continued potential for mainly light lake effect
showers/drizzle this weekend, followed by a return of well-above
normal temperatures for much of next week. Next chance for more
widespread precip looks to hold off until late week, and moreso next
weekend.

Forecast Details: Low-level flow out of the northwest this afternoon
with H8 temps around -4C...still enough to generate a lake response
evidenced by weak radar returns across parts of northwest lower.
Despite higher surface pressures working in from the west, not a
whole lot to stop this from continuing tonight and perhaps all
through way through at least the first half of Sunday. Dominant
precip type should largely be rain/drizzle given warmer surface
temperatures and a shallow moisture depth. Suppose a few flakes
could mix in across inland areas, but with little to no impact
anticipated. Any of this lingering nuisance activity should wind
down entirely by later Sunday and especially Sunday night.

Noticeable warming trend begins Monday and continues through the
remainder of the forecast period. More sun expected for at least he
early and middle portions of next week as well. High temps Monday in
the low 50s, with many northern lower spots warming into the mid-
upper 50s for Tuesday onward. Normal mid-November highs range from
40-45 F area-wide. Next chance for rain returns Thursday as energy
ejects out of the Rockies ans passes by to our northwest, likely
dragging a frontal boundary across the area locally. Longer range
trends favor more active weather potential returning for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 651 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

MVFR cigs will likely prevail for most of the forecast. CIU is
seeing some partial clearing this evening, but lower clouds are
expected to fill back in there tonight. Otherwise low clouds are
expected thru much of Sunday. Late in the day Sunday, clouds
will erode and lift, and VFR conditions are possible in the
afternoon at MBL, toward the tail end of the TAF period
elsewhere.

Nw to n winds go light tonight, and stay that way Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     LHZ347>349.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...JZ

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion