023
FXUS63 KAPX 141913
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
313 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heat to gradually relent after day
- Smoke/haze Wednesday/Thursday, at least
- Showers/storms return by Friday night/Saturday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Wnw-ese oriented 500mb heat ridge will get slowly suppressed
southward, as various shortwaves dig into northern Ontario and,
more broadly, eastern Canada. Searing temps will gradually ease
over the next couple of days as this happens. However, deeper nw
to northerly flow will bring some smoke concerns in at least the
near-term. Better precip chances will await the end of the week
and carry into the weekend.
A scalding 104f observed at OSC this afternoon, 100f at GDW.
Plenty of 80s and 90s elsewhere, coolest near Lake MI, with a w
to wnw synoptic breeze. The eastern UP was held back by a
smoke layer aloft this morning, which cut down heating in the
first half of the day. As opposed to yesterday, diurnal
heating/mixing has brought down somewhat drier air in our
hottest locales, with upper 50s to lower 60s dew points s
central and se. Mid 60s to near 70f elsewhere, plenty sticky
(though less hot). Heat indices are generally staying in the
90s, except for the far se, near 100f. Ongoing heat advisory
looks ok to go down this evening. Heat indices should still push
toward the mid 90s in Gladwin/Arenac/Iosco Cos tomorrow (cooler
elsewhere), and "only" the upper 80s Thursday.
Not much in the way of water/ice clouds out there, mainly a band
of cu in the eastern UP. Far northern MN is seeing some
convection develop. The RAP is the guidance that is most
inclined to spit out a stray shower tonight in eastern upper MI,
and though there seems a lot of relatively dry air to deal with,
would not be completely and utterly to see an isolated shower.
But can`t go higher than a silent 10% pop. Similarly dry and
quiet for sensible wx in the next or two...with one exception.
Smoke. As the mid-level flow becomes more nw-erly and increases
(with the 500mb ridge displaced southward), smoke will
overspread more of the central and northern lakes for the next
couple of days. The base of the smoke layer was only 2500-3500ft
agl earlier today, and we can easily mix that high today, and
going forward. Vsbys have lowering in a few spots, Rogers City
in particular down to 4SM in HZ. Surface smoke seems likely to
become prominent overnight in the eastern UP, and further expand
and/or mix down into northern lower MI on Wednesday. Significant
reductions to vsby (between 1 and 3SM) are at least possible.
This could certainly be enough to keep max temps from rising as
far as they would otherwise, and the forecast was pushed a bit
in that direction. (Another reason I`m reluctant to extend our
heat advisory any further.) For now, Thursday looks to be pretty
similar to Wednesday.
The most prominent shortwave digging into northern lakes looks
to be on the way Saturday-ish. Chances for showers/storms will
lift back into the area as soon as early Friday, and good chance
to likely pops are in order Friday night/Saturday. The weekend
should close on a mainly dry note, before some rain chances
return early next week. Temps will continue a slow decline to
mid-summer norms for the weekend, perhaps slipping cooler yet
early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 112 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Smoke plume to continue to mix down with MVFR visbys expected; could
drop lower at times esp for CIU/PLN, and esp going into Wed. Have
this as HZ in tafs attm with generally MVFR visbys, but could go
down to IFR at times, esp Wed with smoke plume overhead. A few
daytime clouds trying to pop up across EUP attm (bases 3-5kft) but
not expecting a lot today. Not expecting LLWS as much tonight as
last night, but could be present at CIU/PLN and perhaps APN. Winds
generally WNW to W today 5-15kts, should become light/vrb overnight
with some land breezes possible. Think there is a shot at some TSRA
overnight esp for CIU/PLN with a boundary sinking in between 1-9z,
but not a sure bet. Confidence much lower elsewhere but if it occurs
would be toward 10-15z for remaining taf sites. Some fog could
develop again at MBL but not confident attm.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016>018-
020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
LHZ345>347.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
341-342-344-345.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...FEF